Navitas International Education Outlook Australia, US and Europe
That’s the view of analysts at Macquarie who have reduced profit growth expectations for Navitas and Seek after surveying education institutions and migration agencies.
While the effect of changes will be clearer after the March 2011 enrolment intake, feedback shows that the changes in the regulatory environment that have driven the closure of lower-quality education providers have had a broader effect on international student interest in Australia.
With high-quality education operators such as Navitas likely to struggle to achieve previous growth forecasts in Australia, Macquarie has cut its Navitas price target from $5.49 to $4.84 due to an increase in the risk profile.
Fuelling student uncertainty are the competitive actions of Navitas’s competitors in New Zealand, Canada and Britain. International operators are seeking to dissuade students from considering Australia in light of regulatory change.
Of course, migration and visa issues are not the sole cause of a sentiment shift away from Australia. A stronger dollar and violence towards Indian students have also played a part.
Fair point, but what Australians and Australian based analysts do not see is the damage done to Australia’s brand through conflation of issue of student welfare, study to PR, uncertainty, politics, boat people, immigration, racism, etc. Clear xenophobic message that foreigners are not wanted…..
Also, what has been ignored is not that US and UK will increase their market share with likes of Navitas maybe benefitting indirectly, but that other destination countries will emerge for same reasons as Australia. Namely Europe where all EU countries have ageing populations, public deficits and if they have not commenced, they will also enter the international market for education through English e.g. Germany, often for much lower fees with definite PR pathways. A relate signal like Australia has been the introduction of domestic feesin the EU (ex UK) which was unthinkable five years ago….
Further, it was mooted several years ago that the English study abroad market would peak in 2010 as in country education systems caught up with teaching of English in schools etc.
Finally, if you asked anyone working in the industry if they would invest in the international educatin sector in Australia, they would say no.