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Australian Immigration Slowdown, Economy and Property Too?

Australian Immigration Slowdown, Economy and Property Too?

Immigration slows further – ABS data. NET immigration is down sharply, by around 170,000 on an annualised basis, compared with the peak rates recorded a year and a half ago…..At the same time, 30,670 people left, intending to stay away for the long term or permanently…..The balance, the net inflow, was 12,470, compared with 20,130 in August last year.

The figures are not seasonally adjusted, but it is still clear that the net inflow of people to Australia has slowed sharply….

….In other words, if the trend in net immigration continues at the rate of the most recent few months, by early next year we will be seeing full-year totals of barely half the number seen as recently as last winter….

….From an economic perspective, the implications are varied.

On one hand, it means the potential for economic growth is more limited than currently supposed.
The supply of labour is a constraint on growth, so the slower growth in the supply of labour means that constraint will be reached sooner…..

Slower immigration also has implications for the housing market. Fewer new households being formed means fewer new homes will be needed. Builders may have less work on their order books than they expected. But those looking to buy a home may find fewer rival bidders and less pressure on prices.

 

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